2
Firebird Suite
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength80%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 31/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |