5
My Sexy Blonde
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 71
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength34%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2025-10-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 03/10/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 30/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/11/2025 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 14/02/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |