7
Only After Midnite
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 70
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-22 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength66%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 19/10/2024 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 22/11/2024 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 09/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 12/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 27/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |