6
Pauline's Angel
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 50
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 18/02/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 15/03/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 09/05/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 25/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |