4
Ribadeo
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 29/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 15/08/2026 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 18% | -0.53 |
| 06/09/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |