8
Tiz Salty
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 69
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 16/11/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 20/12/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |