3
Voluntold
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 72
Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 05/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 09/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |