4
Altadena
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 94
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | BHA104 | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-07-12 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |