7
Butterfly Jasmine
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 85
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +32.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |