1
Roiling
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 86
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength95%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 09/10/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 09/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 91% | +0.65 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |