2
She's On A Roll
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 92
Churchill Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
87%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/2025 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 57% | -0.34 |
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |
| 03/06/2026 | 10th | 10/11 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |