10

Countthetrue

2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74

Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 4f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS13/06C6C7 @ Ellis Park 10/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 82 · 6f Slo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 82 par10/07C7OR 82C7 @ Ellis Park 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 80 · 7f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 80 par31/07C7OR 80C6 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 74 · 1m Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 74 par29/08C6OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Kentucky Downs?10th7th+3
2026-07-31Ellis Park?4th2nd+2
2026-07-10Ellis Park?4th2nd+2
2026-06-13Churchill Downs?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0610/0731/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength68%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
10/07/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
31/07/20264th2/189%57%-0.32
29/08/202610th33/10%18%+0.18