
Countthetrue
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 74
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 29/08/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |