Juneau
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |