11
Lily Isabella
2yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 40
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength83%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-31 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +48.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 30/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |