6
Shays Gray
2yo Filly · 8-7
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength25%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 12.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 10-15 · 50%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2026 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |