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2

Gonzalo

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 72

Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

19%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Laurel Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 59 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 59 par21/12C9OR 59C9 @ Laurel Park 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 55 · 6f 124 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 55 parC8 @ Laurel Park 12/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 60 · 6f 121 · below its mark12/02/2026 · OR 60 par12/02C8OR 60C8 @ Laurel Park 06/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 60 · 1m110y 121 · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 60 parC9 @ Charles Town 11/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 59 · 7f Fas 122 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 59 par11/04C9OR 59C9 @ Laurel Park 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 53 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 53 parC8 @ Delaware Park 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 57 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 57 par29/05C8OR 57C8 @ Delaware Park 06/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 66 · 6f 118 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 66 parC8 @ Delaware Park 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 68 · 6f 122 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 68 par9/09C8OR 68projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Delaware Park?3rd3rd0
2026-08-06Delaware Park?1st1st0
2026-05-29Delaware Park?2nd2nd0
2026-04-24Laurel Park?1st2nd−1
2026-04-11Charles Town?8th9th−1
2026-03-06Laurel Park?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/126/0329/059/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength93%

Delivery trend -2.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/12/20255th12/137%50%+0.13
09/01/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
12/02/20264th14/126%50%+0.24
06/03/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
11/04/20268th2/189%13%-0.77
24/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
29/05/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68
06/08/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
09/09/20263rd10/147%50%+0.03