3

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4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 75
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 30/08/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |