Seasonal Love

4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 76

Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength47%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-09	Colonial Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-17	Monmouth Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-17	Delaware Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2024-12-19	Fair Grounds	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength42%

Delivery trend +12.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/12/2024	5th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
17/06/2026	5th	7/4	91%	20%	-0.71
17/07/2026	6th	11/2	71%	17%	-0.54
09/08/2026	5th	11/2	71%	56%	-0.15