5
Twelve Nelson
4yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 71
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -9.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2024 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 30/08/2024 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 13/05/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |