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5

Party On Rufus

5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 66

Delaware Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength5%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 59 · 6f Fas 125 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 59 par26/04C9OR 59C9 @ Delaware Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 5f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 57 parC9 @ Delaware Park 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 57 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 57 par3/06C9OR 57C9 @ Delaware Park 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 58 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 58 parC9 @ Delaware Park 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 59 · 6f Gd 124 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 59 par27/06C9OR 59C8 @ Delaware Park 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 59 · 6f 125 · below its mark11/07/2026 · OR 59 parC8 @ Delaware Park 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 69 · 6f 124 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 69 par6/08C8OR 69C8 @ Delaware Park 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 70 · 5f110y 125 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 70 parC8 @ Delaware Park 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 73 · 6f 123 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 73 par3/09C8OR 73projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Delaware Park?1st2nd−1
2026-08-21Delaware Park?2nd3rd−1
2026-08-06Delaware Park?3rd4th−1
2026-07-11Delaware Park?4th5th−1
2026-06-27Delaware Park?1st3rd−2
2026-06-17Delaware Park?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0417/066/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength24%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/04/20265th10/147%56%+0.08
20/05/20262nd7/163%80%+0.17
03/06/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
17/06/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
27/06/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
11/07/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
06/08/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19
21/08/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
03/09/20261st13/891%100%+0.09