Bonfiglio
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 81
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#9
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Lone Star | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Lone Star | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 20/09/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 21/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |