Cafe La Paix
4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 80
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-02-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-02-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2024-11-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2024 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 01/02/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 21/02/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |