6
Daw Samaa
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 71
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/12/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |