12
Don't Copy Me
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 83
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
47%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-27 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-10-11 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
Delivery trend +11.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 16/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |