8
Lord Donegal
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 82
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#10
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2024-09-18 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2023 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 18% | -0.08 |
| 26/06/2024 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 30/08/2024 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 18/09/2024 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.11 |
| 12/07/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |
| 06/08/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 28/08/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 06/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |