11
Nilambar
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 77
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Penn National | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 01/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |