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Chelsea Wall

8yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 78

Delaware Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

70%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Penn National 25/05/2023 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2023 · OR 86 par25/05C5OR 86C7 @ Laurel Park 19/08/2023 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 82 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/08/2023 · OR 82 parC7 @ Laurel Park 23/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 83 · 1m110y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/03/2025 · OR 83 par23/03C7OR 83C8 @ Penn National 24/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 83 · 1m70y Fas 120 · below its mark24/04/2025 · OR 83 parC8 @ Delaware Park 04/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 79 · 1m70y Fas 120 · beat its mark04/06/2025 · OR 79 par4/06C8OR 79C8 @ Delaware Park 09/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 83 · 1m 119 · beat its mark09/08/2025 · OR 83 parC7 @ Delaware Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 76 · 1m Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 76 par20/05C7OR 76C7 @ Monmouth Park 07/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 77 · 1m70y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 77 parC7 @ Delaware Park 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 78 · 1m70y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/07/2026 · OR 78 par1/07C7OR 78projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-01Delaware Park?2nd1st+1
2026-06-07Monmouth Park?5th4th+1
2026-05-20Delaware Park?1st0th+1
2025-08-09Delaware Park?1st1st0
2025-06-04Delaware Park?1st1st0
2025-04-24Penn National?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0524/0420/051/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength74%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20231st5/696%100%+0.04
19/08/20234th13/891%40%-0.51
23/03/20255th5/174%20%-0.54
24/04/20255th3/184%33%-0.51
04/06/20251st11/893%100%+0.07
09/08/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
20/05/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
07/06/20265th5/287%20%-0.67
01/07/20262nd11/486%80%-0.06