Chuck Adams
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 88
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-07-22 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 16/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 10/09/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 16/10/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 13/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 22/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |