Ironsides
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 101
Delaware Park · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 28/02/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 63% | -0.11 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 20/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |