Don't Listen
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 79
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-07-12 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-06-20 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-06-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2024-10-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2024 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 07/07/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 09/08/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 04/10/2024 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 01/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/06/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 12/07/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 50% | -0.42 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 43% | -0.50 |