6
Neolithica
5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 86
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-09 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength65%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 01/11/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 33% | -0.61 |
| 14/12/2025 | 5th | 5/4 | 93% | 56% | -0.38 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |