Shkhara Fire
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 82
Delaware Park · Race 6 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 07/12/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 28/12/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |