IvyArcIvyArc
5

Americandreammaker

5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 95

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/5

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 19/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 98 par19/11C8OR 98C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 10/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fm 119 · below its mark10/01/2026 · OR 96 parC8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 04/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 97 · 1m110y Fas 119 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 97 par4/02C8OR 97C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 13/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 93 · 1m110y Fm 119 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 93 parC7 @ Tampa Bay Downs 21/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m3f Fm 11621/03C7C8 @ Gulfstream 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 89 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 91 · 1m 123 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 91 par27/06C8OR 91C8 @ Colonial Downs 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 90 · 1m110y Fm 125 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 90 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 92 · 1m110y Fm 123 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 92 par3/09C8OR 92projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Colonial Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-07-19Colonial Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-06-27Colonial Downs?1st2nd−1
2026-04-18Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2026-03-21Tampa Bay Downs?5th6th−1
2026-03-13Tampa Bay Downs?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1113/0327/063/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/11/20253rd7/491%78%-0.13
10/01/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
04/02/20262nd11/1094%86%-0.09
13/03/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
21/03/20265th4/179%43%-0.36
18/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
27/06/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
19/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
03/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21