Tongue Twister

5yo Mare · 8-9 · OR 84

Delaware Park · Race 7 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength36%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.4

Today:

Class gap: +1.1

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-03	Saratoga	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-08-15	Saratoga	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-07-26	Saratoga	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-06-28	Belmont At The Big A	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8
2026-06-07	Saratoga	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2025-11-09	Aqueduct	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength61%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/08/2025	4th	11/4	86%	70%	-0.16
21/09/2025	2nd	5/1	74%	88%	+0.14
19/10/2025	5th	11/8	93%	43%	-0.50
09/11/2025	6th	11/4	86%	29%	-0.57
07/06/2026	7th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
28/06/2026	4th	11/8	93%	25%	-0.68
26/07/2026	4th	9/1	53%	67%	+0.14
15/08/2026	5th	10/3	82%	20%	-0.62
03/09/2026	6th	20/1	0%	38%	+0.38