3
Velveteen
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 65
Delaware Park · Race 8 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 20/12/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 23/01/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 10/09/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |