7
Blakely's Boy
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 57
Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/03/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/07/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 26/07/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 21/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 03/01/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |