Midnight Master

3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 55

Fairmount Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼3

Strength97%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-01	Fairmount Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-06-20	Fairmount Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-05-30	Fairmount Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-05-09	Fairmount Park	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/05/2026	6th	16/1	16%	38%	+0.22
30/05/2026	5th	20/1	0%	60%	+0.60
20/06/2026	5th	20/1	0%	60%	+0.60
01/08/2026	5th	25/1	0%	64%	+0.64