2
License To Steal
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 29/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |