Millard's Smile
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 71
Fairmount Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-07-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/07/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 28/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |