1
Elsie's Legacy
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 41
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
25%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength80%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 07/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |