5
Maya's Warrior
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 26
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength50%
Delivery trend +2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 12/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 04/08/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |