Rather Late
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 52
Fairmount Park · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 11/06/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 05/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 18/08/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/04/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |