5
Aspiring Comedian
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-09 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-20 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 19/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 20/01/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 09/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 17/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 29/08/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |