7
Rumbling
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 67
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 03/11/2025 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 9% | -0.70 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |