4
Severance
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 64
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |