2
Smile Like Kyle
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 55
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength7%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 28/10/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 11/08/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 29/08/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |