3
Two Step Jake
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 62
Fairmount Park · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
77%
Place Prob
52%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2024 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 24/10/2024 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 11/11/2024 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 26/08/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/06/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 23/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 70% | -0.17 |