4
Alternative Grace
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 57
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 14/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |