8
Bethy
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 71
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
76%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |