Midnight's Girl
7yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 67
Fairmount Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-07-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 12/09/2024 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 10/05/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 03/07/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/07/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |